2008년 선대인은 "부동산 대폭락 시대가 온다"는 책을 통해 부동산 시장의 붕괴를 이야기 했다.
책이 나올즈음 전세계적으로 몰아친 금융위기는 예외없이 한국에도 밀려왔고, 내심 선대인의 이야기처럼 부동산이 진짜 대폭락하는 상황을 볼수 있을 거라 예상했다.
그러나 놀랍게도 MB정권의 강력한 부동산 버티기 전략을 통해 부동산은 폭락하지 않았다. 오히려 2009년 9월에 전세계 적으로 유일하게 일부 지역의 폭등이 재현되고 있다.
선대인의 "부동산 폭락"은 그저 반 MB 정서를 통해 나타난 현상으로 사회 전반에 관한 문제점을 제기하여 MB정권을 위태롭게 할 목적으로 쓰여졌거나 책을 팔아 개인의 경제적 이득을 위한 수단이었을까?
만약 선대인이 그런 생각이었다면 그는 "위험한 경제학"을 쓰지 않았을 것이다.
"위험한 경제학" 에서는 지금의 부동산 상황이 2008년도의 상황보다 더 위험하는 점을 강력하게 주장하고 있다.
이러한 주장은 "부동산 대폭락 시대가 온다"라는 책에서도 몇차례 주장했던 내용으로 인위적인 부동산 시장 버터기 전략은 더 큰 후유증과 자산 가치 폭락을 경험할 것이라는 경고이다.
그의 주장에 귀를 기울여야 하는 이유는 만약 그가 틀리는 것보다 맞는 경우 발생할 파급효과 때문이다.
소위 건설 재벌들에 의한 또다른 "작전"이 시작될 것이다. 지금까지 MB정권에서 뒤를 봐줬던 건설재벌들... 그들을 살리기 위해서 들어간 엄청난 규모의 예산, 그 이상이 소요될 것이고.. 이 돈은 전부 국민의 세금에서 비롯된다는 점이다.
더 심각한 문제는 평범한 시민들의 자산 가치 붕괴에 따른 진정한 의미의 금융위기에 떨어진다는 점이다. 한국에서 평범한 1세대의 가족이 보유한 자산은 집한채가 전부인 상황에서 무분별하게 집을 사려고 금융부채를 가진 가정들은 엄청난 고통에 시달리게 된다..
이런 상황이 곧 온다는 선대인의 주장을 무시하기엔.. 나의 심장이 너무 작기만하다.
선대인의 사고는 기본적으로 "폴 그루그먼"과 유사한 경제적 입장을 가지고 있다.
신 자유주의적 사고가 매우 위험하고 효과적인 세금 정책을 실현하여 경제적 평등성을 강화해야 한다는 사고..
이러한 사고에서 출발한 부동산에 대한 시각은 부동산을 매우 비효율적인 자산 유형이라는 점이다. 개인적으로 공감하는바가 많다. 현재 진행중인 부동산 시장의 이면, 즉 일반인들은 알수 없는 부동산 시장의 비효율성을 기자적 관점과 분석가적 시각으로 분석해서 제시하고 있다.
현재 제시되고 있는 부동산 시장의 물량 폭탄이 어떻게 진행될 것인지와 수도권 중심의 과다 물량이 전체적인 집값하락에 엄청난 영향을 준다는 점을 제시하고 있다.
그러나, 이런 시각의 근저에는 한국의 현재 처한 근본적인 문제인 "경제 인구 사이클의 큰 변화"에 기반하고 있다. 쉽게 이야기 하면 현재 집을 살수 있는 경제인구가 가장 많고 앞으로 시간이 흐르면 흐를 수록 집을 살수 있는 인구가 줄어든다는 점을 예시하고 있다.
--> 혹자는 그의 이 시각을 비판하기도 한다. 1인 가족의 증가 등 핵가족이 오히려 증가하는 면도 있어서 과거 세대별 주택 구매에서 개인별 주택구매로 바뀔수 있다는 주장도 있다.
--> 개인적으로는 1인 세대 증가 등의 현상이 중요한 요인이 되긴 하겠지만, 대세에 영향을 주지는 못할 듯 하다.
그의 책에서 특히 주목해서 봐야 할 내용은 서민 가족이 보유한 부채와 유동성 문제의 심각성이다. 금융권과 정치권의 이해관계에 의해 만들어진 금융부채를 떠 않은 것은 대부분 서민계층이라는 점, 지금 내가 보유한 부채가 도미노 처럼 엄청난 쓰나미가 될 수 있다는 사실은 자세하게 읽어보아야 한다.
마지막으로 부동산 시장에서 벌어지는 비대칭적 정보 흐름이다. 언론과 건설사간의 유착관계, 정치권과 건설사 간의 관계등 과거 PD수첩을 비롯한 다양한 매체를 통해 나타난 버블 현상에 건강한 시민들이 현혹되지 말아야 한다.
지금까지 한국인 다양한 투기의 홍수 속에서 살아가는 것같다. 고위 공직자 청문회에서 부동산 투기와 연관되지 않은 후보를 찾기 어렵고 뻔히 부동산 시장의 더러운 유착관계를 알면서 내가 비싸게 산 아파트가 더 오를것이라고 확신하는 사람들이 존재하는게 현실이다.
선대인은 이러한 한국적 상황이 물리적, 심리적 "붕괴"라는 과정을 곧 경험하게 된다는 사실을 주장하고 있다.
PS. 선대인 논리를 전개할 때.. 주로 인용한 내용은 일본의 버블 붕괴 과정을 예시하고 있으나, 몇몇 반대편에 존재하는 사람들은 일본인과 한국인이 가진 부동산 시각의 근본적 차이점(집에 대한 애착)이 존재한다고 주장한다. 또한 한국인은 집값이 폭락해도 본인이 구매한 가격 미만으로 팔지 않는다는 점을 이야기 하며 하방 경직성이 높다고 한다. 특히, 일본에 없는 전세 제도 때문에 버블 붕괴는 없다는 주장을 펼치고 있다. 특히 지금까지 많은 사람들이 일본 버블 붕괴과정을 연구 했기 때문에 대응을 잘할 것이라는 희망도 이야기 한다.
누구의 관점이 맞을까? 난.. 선대인에게 한표를 던지고 싶다.
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who faced armed robbery charges, In 2003, one of which revolves around a possible constitutional right to same-sex marriage.who have sided at times with the group because it meant money food or security Lubin a freelance combat journalist and defense analyst who was embedded seven times since 2007 with US Marines in Helmand Province says he repeatedly encountered farmers in Afghanistan who willingly tossed aside their AK-47s because better opportunities arose. This happened in part he says because of Operation Khanjar a July 2009 effort that drove the Taliban out of villages in the Helmand River Valley and then allowed some of them to peacefully return. "The Taliban have proven to be the brothers sons and cousins of those Afghans who favor us" Lubin says "They range from conservative Muslimswhom the people find acceptableto extremistswho are not But regardless they are a part of the Afghan social structure and need to be recognized accordingly". 2013.06.25 12:59 신고
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